Like all post-communist
countries, the re-distributive function of the state is a significant
part of the Hungarian economy. Generation
after generation has grown accustomed to receiving freebies from
the state, regardless of the state of the economy.
The tax policy of the Fidesz/Hungarian Civic Union government was
designed to help a specific segment of society, the “national middle
class.’’ Tax breaks, write-offs and other benefits were extended
to those who had already enjoyed relatively higher levels of income,
and not by those who most needed the support in the name of social
solidarity.
But Fidesz’s moves were motivated by efforts to widen their voter
base. They assumed that the middle class would be more grateful
for the handouts than constituents who were lower on the social
ladder.
As we know, Fidesz lost the elections and governance was handed
over to the Socialist/Free Democrat coalition.
But
the coalition partners have had their own differences of opinion
on many issues as well. Debate flares up and dies down, but
we are
really witnessing a clash of two different concepts or philosophies.
The Socialists are much stronger and, as a result, the Free
Democrats have less room to realise their ideas. In addition, decades
of
state
socialism resulted in even liberal voters becoming fans of
state-freebies themselves. People are slow to realise, however, that
free is
not free. After all, funds distributed from the state are derived
from
the citizens. Many socialist politicians were quick off the
mark to verbalise the need for an increase in handouts, the logic
being that such a move would be sure to generate higher popularity
ratings.
The government program presumed, however, a more favourable
economic climate and contained changes in tax policy beneficial
to taxpayers.
Among them was the further development of tax breaks for
families, the elimination of tax on exchange rate profits as well
as
EVA, the entrepreneurial tax.
EVA is a simplified form of taxation designed for entrepreneurs
with under HUF 15 million in annual income. The scheme,
however, generated
much higher revenue for the state than was estimated. The
liberals claimed that the solution would benefit everybody.
It would
be good, they argued, for entrepreneurs in a much more
transparent tax situation
with a lightened burden of administration and less motivation
for not declaring their income. It was also seen as positive
for the
central budget, because more money would flow into coffers
than
expected.
This is why the revenue limit for EVA is to be increased
to HUF 25 million next year. Of course, this is still
a far cry
from
the real
solution, since the Finance Ministry predicts that only
20,000 more businesses will opt for the EVA scheme next
year. In
the meantime, state spending will not decrease and Hungary’s
finance
minister
must
come up with ways to increase revenue. One of the reasons
behind the plummeting popularity of the Socialist Party
this summer
was that a number of these ideas were leaked to the press,
such as
property tax, assets tax and so on.
Among the planned austerity measures was one calling
for a hike in personal income tax rates. Last year
parliament approved
a
roughly 2 percent decrease in personal income tax rates.
When it turned
out
that state revenues had to be increased, the Socialists
immediately thought of retracting this benefit, even
though
it had been
enacted in legislation.
Like all good liberals, the leadership of the Free
Democrats believes people know what to spend their
money on better
than the government,
and demanded that the approved decrease should stand.
A coalition tug-of-war followed until finally the
tax cuts
were approved.
The money, however, had to be secured, and one possible
source of revenue
was to maintain the 25 percent VAT (value-added tax)
rate – which is drastically high in the European
Union context.
Various
taxation
benefits – deductions, write-offs – are also set
to be eliminated.
This round of tax debates is more or less over, but
we have to admit to ourselves that it failed to
resolve anything. The biggest
challenge
is that the Hungarian economy will continue to
be unpredictable as rules and regulations are modified
every year. Similarly,
it is increasingly
easy to get lost in the maze of legal technicalities.
This is why the Free Democrats recommended that
a tax charter be drawn up in which political
parties would
commit themselves
to
reducing taxes, simplifying administration and
decreasing
the re-distributive role of the state.
It already appears that the coalition parties
will have a difficult time making advances
in this area.
In the
very same week when
the idea of a tax charter was floated, the
Socialists also came up
with the idea that the “rich should pay.” In
other words, a new, higher
tax rate bracket should be created for those
who earn the most. The Free Democrats again
said under
no circumstances
would
they support
such a motion.
During their first coalition tenure in 1994-1998,
the partners learned the lesson that public
coalition debates
hurt their
cause. But this
did not bring their stands on economic policy
closer to each other. At the same time, the
Free Democrats
did manage
to
score partial
victory in the case of the tax table, but
it seems that Socialist notions of a bigger and
more expensive
state
and more taxation
are gaining the upper hand. A piece of good
news, hopefully acceptable to both parties,
is that
after a cabinet
meeting, the caucuses
of
both governing parties came out in favour
of extending the decrease in corporate tax beyond
next year
and announced subsequent decreases
for the next two years as well – as this
would make the country
more attractive to prospective investors.
The Free Democrats also floated the idea
that a decision should be made now on the
tax table
for
2005, as
party chairman Gábor
Kuncze
saw “further possibilities for decreases.”
The real debate is just starting with the
state budget
on
the table.
Whatever the
outcome,
people will be conscious of the fact that
it is their own money politicians are spending
and therefore
they must
watch the
flow of money. |