Politicians appear more optimistic, however, firm in their belief that despite some potential negative effects in the short term, EU accession will eventually bring benefits to Hungarian communities that fall outside the EU.

Sociologists studying the subject, meanwhile, have a more subtle view on the situation.

" The expansion of the EU is a historic opportunity for the Hungarian nation to reunite within the European community, but it is quite clear that it won’t solve the problems," says Jozsef Bálint-Pataki, president of the Office for Ethnic Hungarians Abroad. EU membership will mostly boost economic and cultural cooperation on a regional level along the borders, he says, while there will be no changes to the status law, and the benefits it covers will remain intact. In the EU there are specific funds available to promote the cooperation between border countries within the bloc of nations and with their non-EU neighbors. For this reason, it remains promising that the "wider Europe" concept is gaining momentum.

It may also be of significance that Péter Balázs, Hungary’s commissioner to the EU, will work alongside with Jacques Barrot, the commissioner responsible for regional support – even though commissioners are not officially allowed to represent national interests.

Influencing EU regulations
" As a member, we may try to influence future EU regulations," says Bálint-Pataki, citing Hungary’s minority initiative proposed to the draft EU Constitution. While preparations must be made for Hungary’s future strict Schengen borders with non-EU neighbors, "there is a revision underway of the whole Schengen system, so there may well be changes which may affect Hungary too.

" The most important issue for us is that the neighboring countries become members of the EU as soon as possible, or at least they come closer to membership. The demography of ethnic Hungarians living in the neighboring countries corresponds to the changes of economy and society in their own country. Improvement in those is the antidote for migration," he adds.

Leaders of ethnic Hungarian political organizations also consider migration the biggest problem. Jozsef Kasza, president of the Association of Hungarians in Vojvodina, Serbia, is hoping Hungary as a EU member will be more effective at putting diplomatic pressure on Serbia to improve conditions of the Hungarian minority. He adds that there are also high expectations in the border regions for economic improvement financed from EU funds.

" The Schengen Borders may as well separate the Hungarian communities on the two sides of the border if Serbia remains on the list of countries with visa requirements," say Kasza. He also warns that skilled workforce migration might increase, much like it has already started to flow from Hungary to other European countries.

Visa’s make life more difficult
Visa agreements were concluded with Ukraine and Serbia/Montenegro in late 2003. Under the terms, citizens of Serbia/ Montenegro can apply for a free multiple entry visa beginning Nov. 1. But it does not necessarily take a mandatory visa requirement to make life more difficult when communicating with family and friends just across the border. In Romania, for example, border guards stopped some 500,000 travelers from crossing the border in the first three months of 2004 because they did not comply with legal regulations. Trespasses included a lack of traveler's insurance, a return ticket or not enough cash in hand.

Béla Marko, president of the Hungarian Democratic Association of Romania

Béla Marko, president of the Hungarian Democratic Association in Romania, says migration to EU member Hungary might increase, a fact attributable to the difference in the standard of living.

" But the positive effects are much more important," he stresses, such as Hungary being able to use its increased political and economic influence to improve the conditions of Hungarian minorities. Marko picks 2007 as the "ideal date" for Romania’s EU accession. In its latest commentary, however, The Economist says the example set by the constantly defiant Poland "may scare EU leaders away from letting another big, poor and aggressive country in."

The Economist does not spare the proposed highway in Transylvania either when saying the investment of USD 2.5 billion (carried out by the American Bechtel) "is not aimed first of all to improve Romania’s transportation system but to win more support for the government among the ethnic Hungarians, and also to buy some friends in the United States."

May 1st brought the biggest change for Hungarians living in Slovenia and Slovakia, since those countries also became EU citizens. Béla Bugár, president of the Hungarian Coalition Party in Slovakia, maintains that the simultaneous accession of Hungary and Slovakia offer immense opportunities for both countries. For example, the two countries now share the same system of economic cooperation and EU support, which boosts cooperation along borders.
" If, for example, on one side of the border there is a company buying up agricultural products and there is a farming company on the other side, they will obviously cooperate," says Bugár.

" The economic situation of the Hungarian minorities will greatly depend on that of the neighboring regions in Hungary," says Bála Bauer, a sociologist. In Slovakia, for example, traditional production areas dating back to the Austro-Hungarian monarchy may reappear, such as the Vienna-Bratislava-Budapest "Golden Triangle."

Eastern regions, difficulties
This could happen largely because the proportion of foreign language speakers among Hungarians in the Bratislava area is higher than average, and even higher than in Hungary, as statistics show. In eastern Slovakia the situation is completely different, as not only this region, but bordering Hungarian areas face serious economic difficulties.

Visa requirements have resulted in many being turned away from neighboring borders

Kosice, nevertheless, may regain its central role in the region – to the potential detriment of nearby Miskolc, in eastern Hungary. On the other hand, Szombathely or Sopron in western Hungary could eventually become industrial and service centers for Burgenland in Austria. In general, it is expected Hungary will become even more of a target for immigration. As a consequence, immigration by Hungarian minorities from places like Transylvania, Ukraine and Vojvodina is expected to increase. This could be beneficial to Hungary, "considering the miserable state of the Hungarian demography," as Bauer says, adding that these immigrants have the same cultural heritage and language.

In this way, Hungary could end up escaping the slowing demographic that Western Europe, including Hungary, has been struggling with for a long time. Some Hungarian politicians, meanwhile, envisage and threaten that the declining population will result in the, "the merciful demise of the nation." At the same time, Hungary’s accession may result in the isolation of ethnic Hungarian minorities, mainly because the Hungarian society, as sociologists point out, is rather indifferent toward Hungarians living as an ethnic minority. "It is very hard to predict what is going to happen. Most likely, Hungary’s accession will have a delayed effect, as it happened with Portugal. So it may take 10-15 years for significant changes to take place," adds Bauer.

Experts agree Hungary’s EU accession may raise serious problems mainly for adult and elderly populations. Job market opportunities are not expected to improve, but if so, growth is seen only in areas demanding lower skilled workers.

As a result, employment for unskilled workers may become seasonal. The migration to Hungary is already taking place from Slovakia, Ukraine and Romania. (There is a significant workforce migration, especially from Slovakia since several international companies operating in Hungary already complain about a shortage of workforce.)

In addition, just as much in Hungary, the process of migration from the rural areas to the cities has accelerated in neighboring countries as well, making the situation even harder for the less mobile elderly population. This is a problem that the Hungarian government is tasked with figuring out, alongside the persistent question of ethnic Hungarians outside the borders.

And what about the youth?
" The social processes that affect ethnic Hungarians started with the fall of Communism," says sociologist Kálman Gábor, from the Higher Education Research Institute of the House of Professors. Gábor, who participated in Mosaic 2001, a study on the conditions of young ethnic Hungarians, says there are two parallel processes taking place. Younger generations in Hungary have started to follow Western European models, while young ethnic Hungarians outside of the borders are trying to follow suit. This means that the timeframe of studies is increasing, individual interests are becoming more important and consumer lifestyles are now typical of young ethnic Hungarians.