In the first case Quayle was expressing a paternal attitude to a state aspiring to join the rich boys’ club – familiar to small and medium-sized countries the world over in their relations with the UK. Less than a month later, he was the bad boy in town – struggling to explain why Romanians had to pay the price for an internal British dispute over immigration policy.

NATO recently expanded from 19 to 26 members, much to the dislike of Russia

What had changed? The simple fact that on March 29, 2004, Romania and six other former Warsaw Pact member countries joined NATO.

With its 22 million population, rapidly growing friendship with the United States, and strategic position on the Black Sea and in the western Balkans, Romania is beginning to emerge as a regional power. And it is quite capable of flexing its newfound muscles.

Realignment in Europe
NATO enlargement, from 19 to 26 members, is continuing a process of realignment in Europe, which first attracted attention on the eve of the latest Gulf war – in Donald Rumsfeld’s notorious remark in praise of “the new Europe.” The US now has a line of close allies, on or close to the borders of Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

These developments are being closely followed in Moscow.

“I would like to remind the alliance's representatives that after its expansion they will begin to operate in the zone of Russia's vital interests,” Russian Defense Minister, Sergey Ivanov, said at the 40th Munich Security Conference in February. NATO should pay particular attention to Russia’s political and security concerns, “if the alliance is sincerely aiming at a partnership,” Ivanov continued. And he suggested the deployment of Russian military observers at any new bases NATO opens in Eastern Europe, to confirm there was no hostile intent.

Russia has opposed NATO expansion from the start, but has clearly decided there is nothing much it can do about it. For the time being at least, the accession of the Baltic States was harder to swallow than the accession of Romania and Bulgaria. The immediate deployment of four, Belgian F-16 fighters to Lithuania, to patrol Baltic airspace, symbolized the ease with which NATO can now act along the fringes of the old Soviet Union – and the weakness of the Russian position. Russian leaders partly accept the post 9/11 anti-terrorism argument – but only up to a point.

Smaller troop deployments
The Americans have been keen to reassure the Russians. US Secretary of State Colin Powell told an interviewer in Moscow in January that US troop numbers in Western Europe are now below 100,000, compared to 300,000 at the height of the Cold War. Any new bases in the east would not be big infrastructure projects, Powell said, like those set up in western Germany after World War II. “These might be small places where we could go and train for a brief period of time or use air bases as access to dangerous places,” Powell told Russia’s Ekho Moskvy radio.

More seats at the table: NATO extends its military reach

“I am prepared to agree that certain facilities in Bulgaria and Romania could be used as a launch pad for operations in the Near and Middle East,” the Russian Defense Minister replied in Munich. “But, I would like to get explanations as to the following: where is the region in which we can fight international terrorism using the NATO military infrastructure deployed in Poland or in the Baltic countries?” Ivanov asked the assembled NATO defense ministers.

Russia condemns expansion
In the week of NATO expansion, the Russian Parliament passed a motion, condemning the enlargement and calling for a Russian military response.

Another region of Russian nervousness is the Caucasus. The US has 100 military advisors in Georgia, and Powell traveled to Moscow in January after attending the inauguration of the new president, Mikhail Shaakashvili. Russia retains troops in military bases in both Georgia and Moldova, where tensions continue over the breakaway republic of Trans-Dniestr.

Russia and NATO are locked in dispute over rival interpretations of the 1989 Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty, which aims to limit force levels in Eastern Europe. Russia insists that new NATO members, including the Baltic republics and Slovenia, none of which had armies of their own in 1989 when the CFE treaty was signed, will now have to join the treaty and abide by its terms. NATO negotiators reply that the Russians should withdraw from Moldova and Georgia.

On the other hand, George Bush’s “War on Terrorism” has been a godsend for Vladimir Putin, allowing him to act as ruthlessly as he wishes with Chechen separatists. Asked in the same radio interview why the US did not do more to condemn human rights abuses by Russian forces in Chechnya, Powell made clear that Washington has given Moscow carte blanche.

“This (Chechnya) is an internal matter for the Russian Federation to deal with,” he told the interviewer.

NATO or US expansion?
On the morning after the sixth and most recent expansion of NATO, some Russian commentators woke up with a hangover from the party in distant Brussels. “It’s all very well NATO expanding,” wrote one, “but isn’t this really a US expansion?”

The Constanta Sud Agigea Port in Romania, with the Mihail Kogalniceanu Airport and Babadag training ground nearby is one case in point – a complex of air, sea and land facilities, which the Romanian government is keen for US forces to develop.

The port is now in regular use for US forces serving in Kosovo. In February and March this year, hundreds of tons of US military equipment passed through the port, on its way back to the US – including Black Hawk and Apache helicopters.
The Kogalniceanu airfield was used by Special Forces helicopters, en route to and from northern Iraq last year, when Turkey refused to cooperate at the last minute. And the training grounds at Babadag and elsewhere have the advantage of wide-open spaces, with few local villagers to complain about the sound of tanks firing at all hours.

Attracting US military interest
In neighboring Bulgaria too, great efforts have been made to attract the US military. In the control tower of the Graf Ignatievo airfield near Plovdiv, headquarters of the Bulgarian Air Force have had banks of new, NATO compatible communications fitted. The fleet of MIG-29s across the runway are still housed in bunkers designed to withstand a potential NATO nuclear attack.

Even more so than Romania and Bulgaria on NATO’s southeastern flank, Poland’s high profile role in Iraq is evidence of the Warsaw government’s emergence as a “super-power” in northern Europe. The Americans may come to appreciate the Poles’ longer historical memory. Asked even before the mission in Iraq began last year how long he expected Polish soldiers to stay in the country, one defense analyst in Warsaw confidently predicted “at least 20 years.”

Thirteen countries, including the three Baltic States, now have troops serving under Polish command in Iraq. Eighteen of NATO’s 26 members, and six of the seven new members have troops in Iraq, although one – Spain – recently announced its withdrawal.

Back in Bucharest and Sofia, the British embassies have reluctantly begun issuing visas once again. There is a strange contrast in the old/new Europe. Some countries are welcomed with open arms as strategic partners and allies, but their populations – especially the poorer ones – are actively discouraged from visiting, let alone seeking work.

EU enlargement is as worrying for Russia as NATO enlargement, albeit in different ways. Efforts to modify the existing Partnership and Cooperation Agreement between the EU and Russia, to include the 10 new members, have so far failed.

Other disputes include the status of the Kaliningrad enclave, Russia’s attempt to join the World Trade Organization, and the rights of ethnic Russians living in Baltic States in the expanded EU. On a cultural level, Brussels initiated efforts to bridge growing divisions, when the European Commission earlier this year published: “Wider Europe Neighborhood: a new framework for Relations with our Eastern and Southern Neighbors.” The document argues for development of a “ring of friends,” including the 215 million inhabitants of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova and the sea-board countries of North Africa.