It was the first instance since the systemic changes some 14 years ago that a sitting Hungarian prime minister has been forced to leave office before the end of his mandate. And Medgyessy’s fall from grace was, by no means, an elegant affair.

As seen by the Hungarian populace, the prime minister’s downfall was quick and dirty. Medgyessy’s hold on power, however, following the 2002 election victory and the formation of a coalition with the Alliance of Free Democrats (SZDSZ), has always been somewhat tenuous. In the months before this summer’s ominous blowout, many politicians had been privately questioning and expressing doubts about his leadership. In the weeks before his resignation, two governing party politicians even publicly introduced the notion of bringing down the prime minister.

They cited Medgyessy’s lag in reforms, a directionless leadership and declining popularity. But many, even the day before the meltdown began on August 18, didn’t take these signs seriously.

Medgyessy not decisive enough

Medgyessy had been on the receiving end of criticism for some time, with critics claiming that he was not decisive enough, his decisions lacked a long-term vision and were made on a day-to-day basis. Aware of the criticism, over the summer the prime minister promised a more decisive leadership, even if, as he alluded to in an interview in the Hungarian daily Népszabadság, “I should become the victim of my own decisiveness.” But his promises of a new style of governance seemed too little too late, and many of his supporters were not convinced. Medgyessy himself was not truly aware of the gravity of the situation until after the fact. All of this came as opinion polls showed his popularity was no worse than his predecessors had been during the same periods of their mandates.

DOWNFALL This summer saw the downfall of Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Medgyessy

After the Spring’s bitter European Union (EU) parliamentary election poll, the prime minister promised a more determined leadership, and he announced a government reshuffle. This was meant to show a new style of leadership - one that would hold his government together. But, the changes had the opposite effect. The reshuffle continued to drag on, and in the end, the promises ended up resulting in few changes. The positions which were changed, were just secondary positions in Medgyessy’s weakened government. The announced firing of several state secretaries was also overshadowed by the resignation of Youth and Sports Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány, a man who had been beginning to look more like a political adversary to Medgyessy.

The government crisis developed very quickly, triggered by another cabinet reshuffle when Medgyessy announced that Economy Minister István Csillag, representative of the junior coalition partner SZDSZ, was asked to resign. Medgyessy stuck to his guns on this issue and disregarded SZDSZ when the junior coalition party insisted that their minister stay put.

Medgyessy was confident that SZDSZ would eventually fall in line, as it had done before during a scandal regarding the prime minister’s past. He was confident in believing that the junior coalition partner would not go as far as to jeopardize the coalition. An early election would almost certainly be won by the opposition Alliance of Young Democrats (FIDESZ), with polls indicating that it would only be a question of whether they would win half, or two-thirds of the popular vote.

Off the mark in terms of reality

The prime minister’s hunch, meanwhile, was somewhat off the mark in terms of political reality. The liberal SZDSZ had no intention of ceding power to FIDESZ, nor of causing the break-up of the coalition. Just minutes after hearing about the imminent canning of Csillag - combined with what it saw as a lack of a conceptual plan for the government’s renewal, and little hope that Medgyessy could bring the government out of its interminable downswing - SZDSZ withdrew its confidence in Medgyessy. All of this would not have been enough to cause Medgyessy’s downfall, since the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) faction was almost 10 times as strong as its junior coalition partner, and could well have stuck by its leader. It became clear, however, that Medgyessy also lost favor in his own camp. Just days earlier, ministers had been informed of their budgets for the upcoming year, and as it turned out, there was little to be optimistic about.

Due to the sorry state of budgetary affairs, Finance Minister Tibor Draskovics pulled in the reigns. While the coffers of the state seemed dry, the additional influx of EU cash had strings attached, namely as contributions from the national government. This did not even take into consideration the Maastricht responsibilities.

Medgyessy began attempts to send his political challengers further into the background. MSZP’s head, László Kovács, was sent to Brussels to become Hungary’s EU commissioner, largely because of the electoral defeat of the European Parliamentary elections,

Searching for new alliances

Medgyessy was looking in vain to form new alliances within the party. And this is how, spurred on by grumblings within SZDSZ, the fall of the prime minister was made possible. The whole process that ensued, instigated by party leaders, turned out strangely. The MSZP suddenly announced that they had accepted the resignation of the prime minister, even before it had been publicly announced.

After SZDSZ publicly renounced its confidence in Medgyessy, and following failed coalition discussions on renewing their partnership, Medgyessy put forward a double or nothing ultimatum: either the junior coalition partner would renew its confidence, or put forward a new candidate.

As it turned out, this kind of threatening move on the part of the prime minister was politically unrealistic. This was all the more true since, instead of toned-down rhetoric, Medgyessy went so far as to say that the liberal party was “laden with corruption affairs.”

Allusions to corruption

In reality, it turned out to be the MSZP, and not the liberals - who were busy answering the prime minister’s allegations - to announce that Medgyessy was free to resign. Medgyessy has yet to go into details about his corruption allegations against the SZDSZ.

Following the announcement, MSZP was quick to announce a replacement for Medgyessy – Minister of Chancellery Péter Kiss. This is where things started to slow down, and it later became clear that the “appointment” was premature. It turned out that it was the MSZP congress, and not the leadership, which could choose the candidate who would become prime minister. It was at this point that Ferenc Gyurcsány, Medgyessy’s former minister who was still at his political heels, would instigate a political avalanche.

Despite the party leadership’s support of Kiss, over several days the influential and excessively wealthy Gyurcány lobbied in the background. In the end, he was able to garner two-thirds of the vote, and he was ultimately given the mandate to govern Hungary up until the 2006 general elections. To make things worse for the leadership of MSZP, Medgyessy announced that as opposed to succumbing to the procedure of an embarrassing vote of constructive nonconfidence, he would resign. In the Hungarian constitutional system, this meant that instead of just several days, the procedure of putting together a new government would take more than 30 days.

Medgyessy fell into his own trap, which caused his downfall. Misinterpreting the political conditions around him, in an interview shortly afterwards, he described the events as a “little putsch.” All the while, the Hungarian opposition laid back and watched as the earth shook below the feet of the prime minister.

Ferenc Gyurcsány: The multimillionaire prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsáncy, Hungary’s next prime minister, is set to take office in October. He is a multimillionaire who, on many occasions, has been questioned by opposition MPs as to how he became so wealthy. Born in 1961 to a modest family, Gyurcsány earned degrees in teaching and economics. His political career began in the Youth Association of the Communist Party (KISZ), and he became deputy-president of the successor organization. Following the systemic changes, he left politics in favor of business. His political rivals have claimed that much of his wealth derives from the privatization period, and directly from KISZ properties. Such claims, however, have not been proven. In the 2002 electoral campaign, he returned to politics as a successful multi-millionaire businessman. Following Medgyessy’s 2002 electoral victory, he became the prime minister’s strategic lead advisor, and later the Youth and Sports minister. His rapport with the prime minister deteriorated, meanwhile, and in numerous forums he even criticized Medgyessy. As a result, and in light of his future career plans, he broke with the prime minister and over the summer offered his resignation, which was subsequently accepted. In contrast to his predecessor, Gyurcsány does not shy away from conflict and is a canny politician who craftily uses the media to his advantage. Gyurcsány, himself, was surprised at the large amount of support he received from MSZP when it elected him as Hungary’s next prime minister.