To call the situation in the Caucasus chaotic may be an understatement, especially given the spate of recent attacks. Three “terracts,” an abbreviation used by the Russian media for terrorist attacks, were carried out in the country in late August. Suicide bombers blew up two aircraft almost simultaneously, which resulted in the deaths of 89 passengers. A female suicide bomber in a Moscow metro station then blew herself up, killing nine others, in addition to scores injured. There were more than 100 victims in the two attacks believed to be carried out by “Black Widows,” a term the Russian media uses for Chechen women who seek vengeance for their husbands killed by Russian soldiers in Chechnya.

These events were the backdrop to the third attack: some two-dozen terrorists invaded a school in Beslan - an act that resulted in the brutal deaths of more than 300 people, half of them children.

Samil Basayev claims responsibility

In mid-September, the much-feared warlord Samil Basayev claimed responsibility for orchestrating the Beslan tragedy. The extremist leader is one of the most powerful Chechen warlords and a “professional” hostage-taker. He is also suspected of instigating the siege of a hospital in Budyonnovsk and a theatre in Moscow – past terrorists events that also shocked the world. He is also suspected of carrying out dozens of “terracts” against Russia and Russian allies.

Russian officials also handed out partial blame for the Beslan attacks to former Chechen president Aslan Maskhadov – a man Moscow refuses to deal with because he couldn’t get a tight grip on Basayev when he served under him as prime minister in the then-de facto independent state. Maskhadov was expelled after Basayev’s militia broke into Dagestan in 1999 to proclaim an Islamic state, provoking a second Russian-Chechen war. Maskhadov is considered a terrorist by Moscow although he is more moderate than Basayev – and vowed to bring him to justice even after Basayev claimed responsibility for Beslan.

Calls for revenge

It is not surprising that people have urged revenge following Beslan, especially after Commersant, a Russian publication, reported that the tragedy was only part of Basayev’s greater plan to ignite the Ossetian-Ingush-Chechen conflict. The report claimed that Ingush-trained terrorists brought weapons from Ingushetya and hid them in the school over the summer. Conflicting reports also said weapons were spread in Beslan by provocateurs. Russian authorities consider the Beslan tragedy an offensive meant to drive federal forces’ attention away from Chechnya, where Basayev could have gained time to carry out further operations – provided that the siege would have lasted longer. It is clear that terrorists’ demands for Russian forces to leave Chechnya and free their arrested comrades were impracticable. Several survivors said the commander of the terrorists, speaking by telephone, said: “We have fulfiled our task, now it's your turn.”

Christian Ossetians are Russia’s traditional allies, and were offered the lands and homes of Muslim Ingush and Chechens deported in 1944 to Central Asia by Stalin. The return of those displaced deepened the Caucasian conflict. Beslan might have been chosen as a target because of its loyalty to Moscow, a claim supported by the Moscow Times.

Escalating regional violence?

From the region extending into Southern Ossetia, there are real dangers that the conflict could escalate regionally as ethnic conflicts between Christian and Muslim factions clash.

There are some 17 million Muslims living in the Caucasus (following mainly the Sunni branch of Islam), in addition to more than 100 million Muslims in Iran and Turkey.

Ossetia, once annexed by the Russian empire, is today divided into two parts with closed administrative borders and uncontrolled transportation of goods. North Ossetia is an autonomous republic of Russia, while disputed South Ossetia is in Georgian territory. Factions are pushing for a reunion of the two territories under Russian authority, something that Georgia – along with the support of the United States and the European Union – do not want to see happen.

Moscow has recently gone so far as to announce a full transportation blockade of South Ossetia – so Georgia “cannot be reached … for the moment,” as the cynical Russian media puts it. Russian authorities explain the cutting of transportation ties citing large sums of money owed to them by Georgian airline companies, a claim that provoked outrage from Tbilisi.

Russia to attack terror “anywhere”

Russia has traditionally regarded the Caucasus as it's “backyard,” and has even threatened to attack terrorist bases anywhere in the world. Until now Russia has used other means of putting pressure on states in the region. In Georgia, for example, Russia has periodically withheld electricity - but with the recent threat on terrorist bases, many in the Caucasus fear more heavyhanded measures.

Georgians now clearly see that Moscow will use any tool at its disposal to see the return of its traditional sphere of influence. Georgian analysts say Russia will use the South Ossetian and Abkhazian conflicts to achieve its aims. Abkhazia is Georgia’s halfautonomous, self-proclaimed republic, which has fought for independence since the transition. Moscow is also interested in the strategic Batumi seaport, which is the capital of Muslim Georgians’ separatist territory, Adjaria, another murky conflict zone. Commenting on Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili’s promise to reunite Georgia, the Russian daily Gazeta commented that his intentions could not be ignored. It would be absurd to think the Georgian president would allow the autonomy of Adjaria to go on much longer, they said, especially given recent indicator when Adjarian President Aslan Abashidze was expelled from the area.

Russia-EU relations

The EU is increasing its involvement. While this may help to ease tensions, it runs the danger of complicating Russian-EU relations. Georgia and Azerbaijan are now flirting with Washington and Brussels. They have - together with Armenia - joined the EU’s “New Neighborhood” program, launched earlier this year to build closer ties with new regional neighbours. Reuters recently cited a spokeswoman for EU External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten as saying: “It's an important part of our backyard, where we can only achieve our own objectives if we are working closely with Russia.”

Those looking for signs of a further expansion of Europe shouldn’t get excited - the EU is not interested in bringing conflict zones into its midst. Muslim Azerbaijan and Christian Armenia are historical enemies, fighting for the de jure Azerbaijani, de facto Armenian controlled Nagorno-Karabakh, and also have a territorial dispute over the Azeri exclave of Nakhichevan. In these conflicts, in which Moscow backed Armenia, and one million people were forced to flee.

In the tensions between impoverished nations, oil wealth now plays a greater role, and the Caspian basin has one of the world's largest oil reserves. Those states under Russia’s sphere of influence will need foreign direct investment to explore the fields, a project in which at least two hungry powers, Russia and the US, will want to be involved in. The US, for its part, is planning pipelines to bring Azerbaijan’s oil, via Georgia and Turkey, to the west, bypassing Russia. Azerbaijan will thus look forward to some USD 30 billion in the next 20 years, writes the Economist, citing the International Finance Corporation.

International terrorist groups are also interested in grasping oil, which explains why one-third of the Russian Army and a growing US military presence are also heading for the area.

Lutz Kleveman’s “The New Great Game: Blood and oil in Central Asia,” argues that Moscow’s fueling of ethnic conflicts in the Caucasus intends to keep them on a tight leash, a plan that undermines US plans. The US has been using the war against terrorism as an excuse to establish a military presence in Central Asia. Since the publication of the book last year, the US has announced the relocation of troops to the region. If US intentions are really so “crude” – which cannot be excluded in such a chaotic situation - then Moscow may well cite the Beslan tragedy as an reason to increase its own military presence in the Caucasus.

Conflicts in the Caucasus
The core of the conflicts in the Caucasus can be found in the ethnic diversity between the Black and Caspian Seas. Several ancient tribes formed dozens of ethnic groups and hundreds of ethnic-religious minorities, speaking languages of three different groups that live together in a relatively densely-populated territory. The main trading routes between Asia and Europe run through this region, while the high mountains make the place almost inaccessible for potential enemies. These conditions have been favorable for empires (be it the Roman, Byzantine, Persian or Mongolian). An everlasting hope for independence and prosperity, generated by the hegemony of great powers, was manifested in various forms. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, formerly suppressed conflicts have emerged stronger then ever. The new regimes include nationalist-separatist-populist-fundamentalist systems. The national question ignites the fuse, as a foreign policy study states. We can add that the transitions “produced” social-economic catastrophes, resulting in the re-strengthening of religious ties as well. In the region, religion itself would be enough to go to war for. Armenia was the first country to adopt Christianity in the 4th century, while Islam had spread early in the 7th century from Arabia to Dagestan, resulting in a potential clash of civilizations.