Nicholas Sárvári, a defence and political consultant for Budapest-based CNS International commented, “Whether it’s a Kerry administration or a Bush administration for the next four years, it’s still going to be more of the same.”

Sárvári is not alone. Even Hungarian-based expatriates admit that the historic and increasingly ugly political confrontation now going on between US President George W. Bush and his primary challenger Senator John F. Kerry stands to have little impact on the way the US will do business in Central Europe.

“In my opinion if Kerry wins not much at all will change,” said Stephen O’Connor, president of the Hungarian chapter of Republicans Abroad. “I don’t see a major geo-political shift if he becomes president.”

Europeans look to “regime change”
Such views are even more startling given the keen interest Europeans are now showing in the upcoming US vote, and the strong opinions shared by millions of citizens across the continent.

Different from past American elections, Europeans are watching the Bush-Kerry race closely, and appear to be of one mind in their assessment. They passionately want President Bush to lose.

A survey conducted in five of Europe’s largest countries by HI Europe, a Londonbased global market research and consulting company, found that if Europeans could vote in the American elections they would hand a landslide victory to challenger Kerry by a whopping six-to-one margin.

In the HI Europe survey, Bush enjoyed the most support in Italy, where 18 percent of respondents favoured the incumbent president and 52 percent opted for Kerry. In Britain, Bush’s support was gauged at 12 percent with Kerry winning 36 percent.

Bush poll numbers low
But Bush’s poll numbers dropped in Germany, France and Spain where the president earned a modest 6 percent, 4 percent and 5 percent, respectively, in the face of overwhelming support of challenger Kerry, whose ratings ranged from 57 percent to 69 percent.

But what do these numbers mean? Has Kerry, in the tradition of Euro-friendly American leaders like former President Bill Clinton, struck a position chord of good will with Europe?

According to analysts, the answer is no. Kerry’s wife, African-born Theresa Heinz, may speak with an accent that sounds almost continental, and conservative commentators and critics, particularly over US cable station Fox News, have incorrectly reported that Kerry is French, but few analysts see president Kerry giving any more or less to Europe than the current occupant of the White House.

A similar vision
“I just don’t see a huge difference between the two candidates in their policies and vision in foreign affairs,” said Sárvári. “If Kerry becomes president I can’t see him doing things differently.”

Kerry himself almost agrees. Although declaring himself a stark alternative to George Bush, Kerry supported the Iraq war as a senator and has promised to stay the course in this conflict if elected.

The only thing he would do differently, he has stated, is work hard at repairing relations with former-allies and friends in Europe and around the world, and attempt to convince them to take a larger roll in subduing and rebuilding Iraq.

The Kerry position is a veritable olive branch to disgruntled US allies that complained of being bullied by the Bush administration in the run-up to the Iraq war.

“Kerry stated he will make this grand coalition for Iraq,” said Republicans Abroad President O’Connor. “But this coalition was attempted before, and it failed.”

Added Sárvári: “I think the US, no matter who wins, will be going it alone.”

A divisive leader
So why are rank-and-file Europeans so vehemently and almost violently opposed to the US president? Many resent the “You-arewith-us-or-against-us” message of the Bush administration after the September 11 terrorist attacks, and Washington’s subsequent reluctance to work with international bodies like the United Nations or abide by international conventions.

“It’s about respecting other countries,’ said Erika Pap, 35, a Budapest lawyer. “Under Bush the US has defied the rest of the world, and has done exactly what it wanted no matter what [its allies] believe.”

JOHN KERRY is challenging President Bush for White House leadership - and has significant backing from Europeans polled on their views - even if some experts say the election’s outcome may result in little, if any changes.

Many are still horrified by the excesses of the Abu Ghraib Iraqi-prison scandal. And many still fear the future. “I’m terrified of what might happen if [Bush] wins,” said a 39-year-old filmmaker in Budapest. “Bush will take victory as a mandate to continue making war for the next four years. Who knows what countries will be next. Syria? Iran?”

With the coalition war effort bogged down in both Afghanistan and Iraq, and US military resources stretched to the limit, some experts in Europe are not convinced President Bush is anxious to launch more wars any time soon. But neither is European fear and loathing of the Bush administration a populist wave shared only by the continent’s common man.

Soros funds anti-bush campaign
Hungarian-born billionaire financier and philanthropist George Soros is on record as being so opposed to the Bush administration and so apprehensive about a Republican victory in November that he has committed tens of millions of dollars of his personal fortune to the anti-Bush cause.

Primarily, Soros’ fortune has been used to produce as many as 527 television advertisements attacking and criticising the Bush administration through anti-Bush organisations such as moveon.org and the Media Fund.

Soros’ money has posed a large enough threat to the administration’s re-election efforts that Republicans have lashed out at him personally with rancour uncharacteristic even for this heated campaign year. In late August, Speaker of the US House of Representatives J. Dennis Hastert accused, albeit indirectly, Soros of being an international drug kingpin.

“I don't know where George Soros gets his money,” said Hastert on the program Fox News Sunday. “I don't know where - if it comes overseas or from drug groups or where it comes from. … [But] that's what he's been for a number years. George Soros has been for legalising drugs in this country. So, I mean, he's got a lot of ancillary interests out there.”

Hastert’s comment enraged Soros, who wrote the Republican leader demanding an apology. None has been forthcoming, and analysts don’t expect one any time soon. Nor do experts anticipate that Soros’ high-profile opposition to the Bush administration will backfire on Hungary should the president win re-election.

Hungary-US relationship
More than one analyst has pointed out that ostensibly Hungary’s relationship with the US is closer than it has ever been. George Herbert Walker III, the current US Ambassador to Hungary, is a cousin to the sitting president’s father, former President George H.W. Bush.

And at least one US official suggested that the decision of the previous Hungarian government under Viktor Orbán to award former President Bush the Hungarian Order of Merit also created a favourable impression of Hungary within the Bush family.

What is more, the Bush administration has proven to be a persistent booster of what it calls the New Europe, former East Bloc nations like Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Poland that supported Washington in its coalition against Iraq.

“Even now over the last couple of days I see a new effort by the US government to support the New Europe,” said O’Connor. O’Connor points out that Washington is continuing with plans to shift military bases from old European territories like Germany to Black Sea coastal areas in Bulgaria and south-eastern Europe.

Shifting allegiances
But in terms of the US election itself, European interest in it has more to do with anger and angst than the future. Even if the Bush administration loses the November vote, in the long term Europeans are more likely to respond by throwing their support behind Brussels rather than Washington.

“No matter who wins the White House Hungarians will have to appease Washington,” said Sárvári. “But we’re in Europe, and from now on Hungary is also going to look very closely at where the rest of Europe stands on issues like Iraq.” The reason seems to be rooted to values and common interests. No matter how charming president Kerry may be, he is unlikely to convince Hungarians and its neighbours to increase its commitment to the Iraqi war.

And now that Hungary is part of the EU, Sárvári contends it is less likely in future USEuro disagreements to defy outwardly continental powers like France and Germany, both of whom opposed the invasion of Iraq. At least when it comes to Iraq “the US is going to find itself more and more alone in the future,” Sárvári said.

A decisive factor?
But as interested Europeans watch American voters decide who will be the next leader of the free world, they can take solace in the fact that more than a few political analysts believe that choice may be decided among voters in Europe itself.

"There are between nine and 15 million Americans living outside the US," said O'Connor. "This is like a state, and each state and voting block makes a difference in an election."

Although Republicans Abroad has been working actively and successfully in registering Bush supporters in Europe and countries like Israel, others argue the basic profile of an American expatriate is Democratic and largely anti-Bush.

But whether for Bush or Kerry, many Americans living on the continent agree Europe has changed the way they view politics at home, and the US role in the world.

“I’ve got this friend in Germany,” said an American from Arkansas who has been living in Eastern Europe for over five years. “And he says all any American needs to do to get perspective on the election is to come to Europe and spend an evening in a bar.”

“Suddenly, they see things differently.”