The Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP), which has been floundering since its poor showing in European Parliament elections, has now ventured into an experiment of power-shifting in advance of the 2006 elections - and in many ways, it is a game of Russian roulette. The MSZP sees itself as having placed a safe bet in Gyurcsáncy, who exudes charisma and self-confidence. His multilingual, communicative, people-oriented style offers hope to a party that had been delving into a political abyss.

The wealthy entrepreneur
It is far from certain whether Hungarian voters will be impressed by the wealthy entrepreneur. But his self-confidence and headstrong nature are reminiscent of his most prominent opponent, Viktór Orbán, and these qualities contribute to make him a feisty opponent. The stakes are high, since a defeat for MSZP in 2006 could result in a severely weakened party, or even its potential dissolution.

According to some in the opposition, the game is already lost for Gyurcsány. They point to public opinion polls showing that not only right-leaning supporters could reject the new prime minister, but center-left leaning voters may turn their backs on the millionaire as well.

The way Fidesz sees it, there is no credible left-wing party in Hungary. Fidesz’ solid lead in the polls could open the possibility, they feel, to win support of traditional left-leaning voters over the next 20 months in the leadup to the next general elections.

The political clash, however, has yet to be played out, and Fidesz knows it has a serious opponent in the new prime minister. Tibor Navracsics, responsible for developing the Fidesz governing strategy, in answering a query in the weekly political magazine HVG in January, referred to Gyurcsány as “an important character in Hungarian political life and takin part in the national debate with an incredible and spirited vivaciousness. He is a man who, in the near future, we have to watch for.”

Charismatic personalities
Gyurcsány is not shy to stand in the way of, or take up arms against, the similarly charismatic Orbán. And when he takes the floor in Parliament, he regularly throws a punch or two at his main rival, which results in frenetic and thunderous applause from normally diffident Socialist Party MPs. It is in the style of these parliamentary speeches and remarks that the most important differences are found between Gyurcsány and his predecessor, Péter Medgyessy.

While Medgyessy delivered his addresses in grey, commonplace and banal rhetoric, Gyurcsány, in contrast, improvised his first and most important speech because he was not impressed with the content of text written by his handlers.

These talents underlie just how formidable an opponent he will be in the face of Orbán, and Hungarians can look forward to lively and colourful television debates between the two politicians. Yet, Gyurcsány must still fine-tune his rhetoric.

For example, on record in parliamentary debate, he confidently said that in Hungary, there is “abundance and prosperity.” This was read with a strange irony – coming from the mouth of a multi-millionaire. The opposition fired back with a long list of price increases in the past two years initiated by the Socialist Party-led government. As yet unpolished

Gyurcsány later admitted the foolishness of his statement, but the correction was to little avail. “I will have to learn to speak better. The big pitfall is that without a written text, I speak in the normal language of the people, because then they know that it is me speaking and not speechwriters.”

In an unusual move, following a spree of never-ending opposition attacks, Gyurcsány publicly admitted that his description of Hungary’s supposed wealth of prosperity was inaccurate. Medgyessy made a similar fauxpas when he declared his party as the “poor people’s party,” but he did not go to such great lengths to correct himself.

Gyurcsány also had to explain another awkward remark made on a morning television program. During the program, he began enumerating examples of unsatisfied segments of the population who justified their needs and deserve more. He said that those who have two rooms, deserve three; and those who have three, deserve four. The trouble came on the third example when he claimed, “those who have an old or an aging wife … deserve a younger one.”

Embarrassing events
Following these embarrassing events Gyurcsány once again took a step back and apologised. The attacks wielded against him were even more severe when it came to the how he acquired wealth in the past 15 years. In particular, the workings of the Parliamentary Representatives’ Club were scrutinised by opposition, especially given the fact Gyurcsány bought the property for HUF 11 million, which he turned around to rent to the state for HUF 1 million a month. The club’s multi-million forint renovation was subsequently paid for by the tenants – the state.

Similarly causing furore Gyurcsány’s leasing, under preferred conditions, part of the government rest house in Balaton Öszöd. The Hungarian conservative daily, Magyar Nemzet, wrote that he would constantly be remind him of the “suspicious circumstances” under which Gyurcsány had become a millionaire. They pointed to his past in the former system when he was the head of the Communist Youth movement. How was it, the newspaper asked, that he purchased, for a pittance, state properties during Hungary’s privatisation process? For the time being, there are no new revelations. The question remains whether these issues will continue to bog him down and whether his critics will reveal more skeletons in Gyurcsány’s closet.

Popularity on the rise
In the meantime, Gyurcsány’s popularity rating is on the rise and increasing quickly, recently jumping from 17 to 43 percent. But hard times are still ahead.

No matter what harsh words Gyurcsány has for Orbán, the leader of the opposition has little trouble backing up recent negative economic indicators and allegations of dark clouds on the state of the Hungarian economy. His references to record-breaking budgetary deficits point directly to the necessity, in the coming months, of constrictive tightening of government budgets.

Gyurcsány will have to play a magical balancing act. The budgetary restrictions will need to be even more severe than that of Medgyessy. Belt-tightening that affected the pocketbook of the populace caused indignation, as well as criticism from the Socialist Party faction itself. They broke any illusions of being able to come through with the concept of the state as a “provider.” The way Gyurcsány put it: “we need to show strength in order to avoid making drastic changes to economic policy.” Reforms would have to be made, meanwhile, to the distribution system – resulting in changes as to who contributes and who receives state funding. What it would come down to is a clipping of government handouts and funnelling those funds to the most needy.

A sense of bravado
With a sense of bravado, Gyurcsány has captured the attention of press, and the reviews of his work ethic have been - in relation to his predecessor - quite extraordinary. Respect for Gyurcsány within MSZP was so great, that days after Medgyessy lost support of the coalition, Gyurcsány obtained 75 percent approval from members of the quicklyorganised congress.

His success was due in part to the fact that as minister of Hungary’s Ministry of Children, Youth and Sports, he made his way throughout the Hungarian countryside, building a support network within local MSZP infrastructure. He was even elected president of the Gyôr faction of MSZP, a move originally planned for the 2006 poll. It paid back earlier than expected.

Countryside road show
His countryside road show was key to his rise in popularity. The prime minister-to-be was seen joking in short-sleeved shirts, even swearing, just enough to look like an “ordinary man.” He didn’t end the road show when nominated Hungary’s next prime minister. In between trips he held intensive consultations, meeting with almost every board of the party within a two-week period, as well as government officials and the government’s junior coalition partner.

On one Thursday afternoon, he attended a meeting of the provincial faction of the Alliance of Free Democrats, the government’s junior coalition party, in order to discuss next year’s tax reforms. At that meeting, he summoned leaders of junior coalition partners to a meeting the next morning in Budapest at 7 a.m.

Weekends were no less busy for Gyurcsány. One day in mid-September, ministers were called to meet him individually, starting at 8 a.m., to negotiate their budgets for the coming year and discuss their ideas on spending them. Most left the negotiation room with little to be happy about budget-wise. They came out of their meetings lugubriously, handing the torch to the next person to meet his or her fate. Gyurcsány left the office at 9 p.m., having sat through an all-day session.

Ministers’ voices heard
The ministers are also strangers to having access to the new prime minister, compared to Medgyessy, whom many had to wait up to two months to meet with. It was refreshing for many members of Gyurcsány’s potential team to be heard and to discuss their plans.

Just what Gyurcsány obtained from those meetings is anyone’s guess. Also surprising is that very little information was leaked. Gyurcsány shares his plans with few people, and it is not clear who the small group of advisors is. Gyurcsány’s first success at the congress, in which he came out of as prime minister-designate, was only a partial victory, since there were a good number of rank-andfile Socialists who considered the poll a protest vote when they chose Gyurcsány and rejected party-anointed candidate, Péter Kiss.

The new government program
The recent publication of Gyurcsány’s government program details what lies ahead. The challenge is all the more poignant since the government will have to deal with a far larger deficit than imagined - and this means consequences for all. The government program, released at the end of September, promised plans for the future and outlined what projects would be put off for another day, including massive and much-needed healthcare reform.

CHANGING GUARD new PM’s team replaces old guard.

The crux of Gyurcsány’s strategy, already passed by Parliament, is somewhat vague, although a constant theme centres on less money from government coffers. We do know, however, some guidelines under which the new prime minister will govern. Gyurcsány’s priority is to balance societal inequalities at the expense of the more fortunate. This means citizens in higher income brackets can expect tax increases and a tightening of loopholes. It also means that corporations – primarily financial institutions – will have to foot a greater part of the bill to create Gyurcsány’s more “equal” society. The main loser Gyurcsány’s program is the country’s healthcare system, which will not see planned reforms. In addition, defence will also face cutbacks and Hungary will likely fail to meet its minimum responsibilities of spending for NATO membership. The civil service, also pegged for reforms, may be placed on the back burner. Ultimately, the new prime minister is likely concentrating on what he can realistically achieve in his term, while putting the rest off for another day.

It is also apparent that in terms of state support, ministry budgets will receive less funding compared to last year. Governmentwide, the next year will be a year of attrition.

The conciliatory momentum achieved by the newly-inaugurated prime minister could well have come from the necessity to strengthen his support from within MSZP. Gyurcsány, a former senior advisor to his Medgyessy, suddenly finds himself in the driver’s seat. Many, however, remain uncomfortable, including some in his party, with how acquired wealth during the systemic changes. In addition, former MSZP faction leaders have been pushing for a greater say in the decisions of the government, especially when making tough economic decisions. It is sure that conflicts may well arise.

Gyurcsány seems determined as ever. In order to sooth investors, he left Finance Minister Tibor Draskovics in place to effect a plan to cut spending and tighten the government’s belt. The drastic plan includes a 20 percent reduction in civil service. While next year’s budget will strive for a 6.5 percent increase in the salaries of some 800,000 civil servants, the tap has been shut on financing this. The solution has been to let people go. It is little consolation for those expected to lose their jobs that the average tax burden will decrease next year. The popularity of Prime Minister Gyurcsány early next year will be the ultimate test, when he will announce the budget for 2005.