Several New Labor heavy-hitters attended, including Mandelson himself, Anthony Giddens, the movement’s intellectual guru and author of the book, The Third Way, and, most notably, Tony Blair, UK prime minister. With Bill Clinton out of electoral politics, Blair has become the undisputed figurehead for the modern center-left movement – known as the Third Way – that seeks to embrace the economics of the free market while retaining the left’s traditional mission to equalize opportunity and help the poor.

Blair was clearly on his game. He electrified the admittedly partisan crowd and delivered a well-polished speech on his broad policy goals for the center-left, sprinkling it liberally with a missionary zeal that still excites the faithful, especially outside Britain. A role model?

For Gyurcsány, a man who was so enthralled by Giddens’ book that he paid to have it translated and published in Hungarian in the 1990s, it was a chance to see his hero upclose and in action. But as the Hungarian prime minister returns to the nitty-gritty of governing a troubled country and running a fractious party, it remains to be seen how true is his devotion to the Third Way. Two months after winning a power struggle within the Hungarian Socialist party (MSZP), Gyurcsány is still an enigma to many observers, including diplomats, investors, the media and many voters.

If Gyurcsány genuinely wants to follow in Blair’s footsteps, he should have two primary goals: reform and subdue his party, then shift its policies toward the center, where more business and investment-friendly practices can help Hungary prosper economically. On both counts, he faces real tests that will reveal not only his political skills but also his commitment to “Blairite” ideals.

On the first, his task will be appreciably more difficult than Blair’s. Blair made his bid for control of Labor when the party was not only out of power, but so far out of touch that it was ready for something radical – radical, at least, for the far-leftists who had run Labor into the ground in the 1970s and early 1980s. Gyurcsány, by contrast, starts in power, a position that makes a party reluctant to change no matter how badly it is doing in the polls.

The politics of change

The Socialists may already have done something radical by picking Gyurcsány, the young maverick who comes from outside the graying hierarchy of the MSZP. But that doesn’t necessarily apply to actual policy formation. The Socialists’ rank and file crave a change in image and style, and Gyurcsány delivers. He and his advisors seem to have schooled themselves well on the PR and spin machine that is New Labor.

But to consider the second step, a hard tack to the center in concrete policies, Gyurcsány will require much tighter party discipline to lead the Socialists into such foreign territory.

On the edges of last month’s conference, Mandelson recalled Labor’s transformation from a rowdily divided camp to a largely unified body. “It is not by chance that Tony Blair was able to lead a more cohesive Labor Party than we’ve ever known because of the changes within the party,” he said.

The force of political argument

The main tool of cohesion, according to Mandelson, was the “sheer force of Blair’s political argument.” Others less generously credit the Blair team’s ruthless quest for control and intolerance of internal dissent. Whatever the truth, and it may be some of both, Gyurcsány will have to succeed as did Blair in lining up the troops behind him.

If he succeeds there, Blair gave him inspiration for the second step. “We have to win the center ground,” said Blair. “That means using wealth creation as well as distribution.”

Winning the objective

If Gyurcsány was listening, he might have been inspired to cut the budget deficit, eliminate the government payroll and reduce taxes. But Blair had another bit of advice that may only confuse the matter. “The purpose of progressive politics is winning,” he said. “Being in government is always better than being in opposition.”

Doubtless, Gyurcsány has already grasped that thought, which makes it somewhat less likely that the Third Way’s torchbearer for Central Europe will actually run too quickly toward the center. Hungarian politics in the last three years has largely devolved into competing forms of populism with a giant budget deficit to show for it. But abandoning that in favor of fiscal responsibility less than two years before an election will win few votes. Policies that foster growth take longer than that to show results.

Perhaps unsurprisingly Gyurcsány’s first moves attempted to please everyone. He has announced plans for new taxes on banks and capital gains. These will help address the budget deficit but are essentially populist policies that may also hurt investment and growth.

More of the same may be dangerous, for in trying to please everyone, Gyurcsány may discover that he has pleased no one at all.